Consumer Sentiment, PMI, Inventories, Tariff Refunds, IE 501c3 Loan Fund and Charging an EV in 5 minutes.
And the numbers are…
- The biggest news was the final consumer sentiment measure put out by the University of Michigan. It was expected to suck, but as it turns out, it sucked less.
o It came in at 49.8, above the preliminary measure of 47.6.
§ It’s still the lowest measurement since they started tracking it in 1961.
§ One of the survey questions was: Where do you expect inflation to be in one year? It turns out that the number is 4.7%.
§ That’ll impact confidence.
- Retail sales were better than expected, up 1.7%. Take out cars, and they’re up 1.9%. Both measurements were 0.7% the previous month, beating expectations of 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively.
o Folks are still spending.
- Initial jobless claims keep puttering along. The most recent number is 214,000, vs. 208,000 the week before, with 210,000 expected. No alarms there.
- Finally, both S&P services and manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index – PMI - were released.
o The Services sector was up from 49.8 (contraction) to 51.3 (expansion), 50 being the demarcation point.
§ This was caused by a modest pickup in new business, but the pace is slow. The improvement is welcome, but it’s marginal.
o Manufacturing was up from 52.3 to 54.0.
§ That was a four-year high with strong gains in output and new orders caused by inventory stockpiling.
· Coincidentally, this was seen in the business inventory numbers that were up 0.4%.
· It seems that businesses are stocking up, buying now before it gets worse. No confidence there.
- And that’s the way it is on April 27, 2026…
Tariff Refunds
- CBP is developing CAPE within ACE to process IEEPA refunds; IORs only. First phase began on April 20.
- Translation: the U.S. Border and Customs Protection has developed the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries within the Automated Commercial Environment that only Importers of Record can do. That portal will be open on April 20.
- Translation for the translation: you can apply for tariff refunds now, but only through your importer of record.
o Folks, I am just the messenger. For some real assistance, here is the link.
o It bears repeating that it’s only the importer of record and authorized customs brokers that can submit through the ACE Portal the information needed for tariff refunds.
- And thus begins the $166,000,000,000 shot of cash into the economy. And it’s going to the businesses that originally paid it.
o However, don’t expect a trickle-down. I’m guessing Wal Mart is not going to hand out 10,200,000,000 $1 bills as folks walk in.
The Inland Empire Nonprofit Loan Fund
- Some of you may recall that this weekly Report started in early 2020 as a resource to businesses for pandemic and government funding programs. So, whenever I hear of a program that can help businesses, I mention it.
- This particular loan fund is designed to finance nonprofits in the IE with loan amounts of $100,000 to $400,000.
- Eligibility criteria are:
o 501(c)(3) nonprofits
o Minimum revenue requirement: $500,000
o Unrestricted operating surplus in two of the last three years
o Project or services must benefit either the County of Riverside or the County of San Bernardino residents
- The funds are provided by said counties and managed, oddly enough, by a Community Development Financial Institution – CDFI - based out of New York.
o Why California municipalities continue to invest their money with out-of-state firms is beyond me. Yes, they have an office in L.A., but there are plenty of CDFIs in California that can do the job. Just my two cents.
- The next window for applications opens up on May 1. Here is a link to their webpage.
- If you are tied to a non-profit, pass this information on, but only if they can use debt judiciously.
- Good luck!!
EVs – Electric Vehicles
- Well, for the folks that have EVs right now, they are quietly smiling to themselves, unless they are narcissistic, in which case they are pointing out to everyone how smart they were to buy an EV.
o But that’s not my point.
- Fast Charging sites in the U.S. grew by about 87% in 2025 through the month of November.
o That brings the number to about 21,000, and most still take 20 to 40 minutes to charge.
o For comparison purposes, there are about 150,000 gas stations, and all of them have multiple pumps that will suck $100 out of your pocket in less than 5 minutes.
- In a previous issue this year, I mentioned BYD, a Chinese EV company. Their latest model, utilizing their latest battery, can recharge to 70% in about 5 minutes.
o Their system reaches 1,500 kilowatts. By comparison, top U.S. systems are at 400 kW, but many are as low as 50 kW.
o Mercedes-Benz is putting in a system that will do 600 kW.
§ BTW, the kW number is the speed of the charge, kind of like gallons per minute. The bigger the number, the faster the charge.
§ kWh is the capacity of the battery, and the average is currently 70 to 80 kWh, with larger vehicles over 100 kWh.
o With a 50 kW charger and a 100kWh battery, it’s going to take 30 minutes, but with a 600 kW charger, you are at 8 minutes to get to 80%.
- It’s only going to get better, folks, but you’ll probably still have to plan out a road trip to make sure you have the right size charging station on the way.
o Or just rent a hybrid.
Nobody knows the downstream effect of the Strait of Hormuz. There are lots of guesses, and there is no doubt that economically it is NOT good for much of the world. Consequently, the economic numbers that many folks rely on to see where the economy is going may or may not be prognosticators of things to come. As I mentioned in the first section, some businesses appear to be stocking up on inventory as a reaction to geopolitical affairs; this is the trickle-down effect that I am referring to. What other trickle-down effects will there be?
As a business owner, this is just one of many facets of your company that you have to handle. Maintain close contact with your trade association and other business owners in similar industries, and learn what they are doing and what they are thinking. Try to stay focused on your customers and keep out the noise.
Adam
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