Jobs, PMI, Consumer Credit, Confidence, Retail Sales, Tax Credits, Ganja and Lightsabers

The Numbers

• Jobs.  Unemployment claims are still hanging around 197,000, the same as last week.  No alarms here.

• Consumer confidence – that keeps falling.

  • This month, it’s at 46.3, down from 47.8 last month and expectations of 48.0.

  • That’s what $6/gallon will do.

• The S&P Services PMI survey – Purchasing Managers Index – got a little more optimistic.  It went from 56.5 last month to 58.8.  Smaller and mid-size firms are expecting a little more growth.

• The ISM Services PMI was 55.4 last month and 54.9 this month.  Larger companies are still expecting expansion; just not as much.

  • Both of these indexes, if over 50, mean that companies are expecting to expand.

• Consumer Credit

  • Total consumer credit outstanding was $5,197,000,000,000. 

    • That was up $8,300,000,000, or 1.9% annualized.

  • Revolving credit outstanding was $1,352,000,000,000.  That is down $4,800,000,000 or an annualized 4.2%.

  • Nonrevolving credit outstanding was $3.844 trillion.  That was up $13,100,000,000 or an annualized 4.1%.

  • So, while credit cards are down, term debt, like car loans and student loans, are up. 

Retail Sales

• Kiplinger is expecting holiday sales to increase 5.5%.  That is quite a bit more than last years 3.6% increase.

  • Brick and mortar – the stores, not the material – are expecting a 3.7% increase, above last year’s 2.5% gain. 

  • Some surveys show that 40% of people will split their shopping between in-store and online.

• Some notes:

  • Expect some sticker shock for electronic gifts.

  • Toy sales are up 17% in pure dollars and 12% in unit terms.

    • It will be a green Christmas this year! 

The Saver’s Credit

• 2026 is the last year for the saver’s credit.  This is a tax credit, but what do they mean by credit?

  • It reduces your taxes owed to the IRS dollar for dollar.

• This tax credit rewards low- and middle-income folks who contribute money to an IRA, 401(k), 403(b), SEP, or similar retirement plan.

• The maximum credit of $2,000 for joint filers and $1,000 for other filers is capped at 50%, 20%, or 10% of contributions, depending on the filer’s adjusted gross income.

• For 2026, the saver’s credit fully phases out at AGIs of $40,250 for single filers, $60,375 for household heads, and $80,500 for married couples filing a joint return.

  • I think this is certainly worth mentioning to your employees.  It doesn’t hurt to show them you care about their future.

• Ask your tax preparer or your friendly AI for further information. 

More Tax Stuff

• Starting this year, non-itemizers can deduct charitable cash contributions.

• If you claim standard deductions, you can also write off up to $1,000 of your cash gifts to charity.

  • The amount is $2,000 for couples who file a joint return.

  • And it doesn’t phase out based on income.

• One last thing…

  • The U.S. Government Accountability Office – GAO - estimates that the federal government loses $116 billion to $304 billion annually from tax fraud

  • This includes both taxpayers who deliberately evade taxes and criminals who use schemes such as identity theft and fraudulent refund claims.

    • The estimated loss equals roughly 2% to 6% of federal taxes owed.

  • Geez.  A billion here, a billion there… pretty soon you’re talking real money. 

What would you pay for a lightsaber?

• Well, one with the severed hand of Luke Skywalker went for $3,750,000 at auction.

• Now, another one without an attached appendage is going up for auction.

  • It belongs to Darth Vader and was used in the duel in Cloud City by Lord Vader.

  • It’s expected to go for $1,000,000

• It is one of more than two dozen lightsaber props that Heritage Auction is auctioning on November 12, 2026.

  • You can pick up a signed Emperor Palpatine photo for a starting bid of $100.  Or a C3PO glove for $8000.

    • YOLO! 

Your Future Workforce

• Marijuana use among high school students is at a record low, so says the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  Jeff Spicoli would not approve.

• 12.9% of high schoolers in 2025 said they had used marijuana at least once during the previous 30 days.  That sounds like a lot to me, but…

  • That is down from 21.7% a decade earlier.  Evidently, it peaked at 26.7% in 1999.

• That’s the lowest rate since the CDC began tracking the measure in 1991.  Not only is this good news in general, but it’s also good news because this is the group you’ll be hiring now. 

The year is coming to a close, so stay focused and try to block out the noise, and boy, there is a lot of it.  One professional told me they disengage from their handheld device (it really isn’t a phone, it’s a communications and information tool that sucks up your time and energy) when they get home so they can focus on their family, and they find themselves better charged when they get up the next morning.  Even if they have to run to soccer practice and help with homework that night. 

Finally, if you want to poke the bear, ask your Boomer co-worker or the older person at a mixer if texting while driving is any worse than having The Thomas Guide open in your lap, flipping from page to page.  You may not know what a Thomas Guide is, but they will.  

I dug one up from 1988 when cleaning out a garage cabinet. 

Stay focused, Daniel-san!