Jobs (ADP, BLS), Consumer Sentiment, John Williams, The World Cup and Who is Doris Fisher?
This Week… Jobs
That was really the big news. The jobs report, both from ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, exceeded expectations.
The ADP report was 61,000 last month, with expectations of 84,000. It came in at 109,000. Nice.
The BLS jobs report came in on Friday. In April, they blew away expectations at 185,000. Given the high number, it had to be much lower this month, so estimates were set at 55,000.
The numbers came in at 115,000. Even nicer.
And the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3%.
There are a LOT of things going on that impact the job market:
Tariffs
Iran
AI
And boomers retiring.
And here’s another tidbit – since the end of 2023, private sector jobs in healthcare and social assistance have added 1,800,000 jobs. Outside of that, private sector jobs have dropped by 127,800.
That is not a typs, and that’s what an aging population will need – health and social care.
It’s all in the demographics, folks.
The downer for the week was preliminary consumer sentiment. Last month, it came in at a record low of 49.8. Expecations were even lower at 49.7. Well… preliminary readings are 48.2, another record low.
Fuel and tariffs were key reasons.
John Williams, NY Fed President
Many readers will know that I have mentioned NY Fed President John Williams. How can I not? He shares the same name as one of my favorite composers.
Just to bring everyone onto the same page, the composer John Williams wrote the score to the Star Wars series of films among many, many others. He is 94 years old, BTW.
At any rate, John Williams (of the Fed), gave a speech on Monday, May 4th. Let’s go through it.
The title of the speech: There Is No Try. That set the tone.
“A wise Jedi master once said, 'Always in motion is the future,' and that is especially true today.”
Inflation was a “Disturbance in the Force.” He expects inflation to remain high for the next few quarters due to tariffs and higher energy prices.
He does expect the impact of tariffs to fade in the next few months.
The impact of energy prices will continue in the form of higher airfares, groceries, fertilizers, packaging, and other consumer products.
GDP is expected to be 2% to 2.25% this year and next.
While on the surface, the labor market is holding firm, there are some underlying issues that may or may not indicate some difficulties ahead.
“Asian countries that play a key role in the supply of high-tech equipment are particularly exposed to shortages of various commodities. Thus, the conflict could result in a larger and broader-based supply shock that has more severe adverse consequences for inflation and economic activity… Much to learn we still have.”
He is “…committed to supporting maximum employment and bringing inflation down to our 2 percent longer-run goal on a sustained basis.”
“Do or do not. There is no try.”
And he closed with “May the 4th be with you.”
That’s my kind of Fed president!
The World Cup
Yes, this is about football. European football, that is. Colloquially known as soccer in the USA. A brief background…
The World Cup is governed by FIFA - Fédération Internationale de Football Association – which translated means “Financially Insane Football Affair”.
It starts in 31 days with the first match in Mexico City at Estadio Azteca with prices starting at MX$119,700 or US$6,895.
Don’t panic, that’s on the FIFA website. Let’s see what it is on StubHub…
$1,952 USD. I feel much better.
That is what is known as cartel prices in Mexico.
Don’t worry, in the US, we call them hedge fund prices.
Except in Atlanta. Evidently, the music industry is having a rough year because those tickets are going for $476 for Spain vs. Cabo Verde.
Yep, Cabo Verde defeated Eswatini to qualify.
For those of us that went to high school in the 70’s and 80’s, Cabo Verde was originally Cape Verde. Eswatini was Swaziland. And that’s your geography lesson for the day.
But that’s not the point of this segment; I digressed again.
Tickets for the final on the FIFA site start at $16,475, with the trophy lounge going for $35,000. That’s July 19 in New Jersey if you want to make plans.
StubHub has a seat in the top row of the end zone for $8,317.
However, the hottest ticket right now is for a first-round game in Miami that has Portugal playing Colombia. That is because this will be Christiano Ronaldo’s final World Cup. He’s 41 and one of the best players in the world.
At any rate, the cheapest ticket is $2,516 on StubHub. Don’t worry, all fees are included. You can also purchase one directly from FIFA for $5,000 even.
Hmm. I feel much better about the single-game tickets I’ll be buying for the Dodgers.
Who was Doris Fisher?
At the time of her passing on May 2 at the age of 94, she was #23 on Forbes' ranking of self-made women billionaires at $1,200,000,000.
While she was part of the silent generation, many of you will recognize what she built with her husband.
Unlike some of the folks I have profiled in these pages, she had a bit more than a high school education. In 1953, she was one of the first women to graduate from Stanford University with a degree in economics.
She served on Stanford’s Board of Trustees from 1992 to 2002.
She was born in 1931, the middle of three children; her father was a lawyer.
She started dating Don Fisher in 1952 even though the families had known each other for decades, having shared lodging after the 1906 San Francisco earthquake.
They married in 1953.
Don was a real estate developer that had a hard time finding Levi’s in his size.
So, Doris and Don pooled $63,000 and opened a clothing store in 1969 that also sold records and cassette tapes and tapped into the counterculture vibe.
That would be $621,000 today.
By that time, they had three boys – talk about juggling commitments.
They went back and forth on the name.
There was quite a generational divide in the 60s. Pants and Discs was one option. But given the generational gap they were trying to bridge, the name of the enterprise was obvious.
The Gap.
And now you know the rest of the story.
Don was the CEO and Doris would come by the store several times a week to stock shelves, sweep and cashier.
Her focus was on merchandising – she had a definite flair for style, and she was on the board until 2009.
The company went public in 1976 and at its peak in 2018, had $16,500,000,000 in sales, 3,600 stores, and employed 135,000 people.
The Gap Foundation, which they started in 1977, supports childhood education, disaster relief, and programs for female garment workers.
The boys would ultimately be involved in the company as executives or directors.
Mrs. Fisher would ultimately have 10 grandchildren and 13 great-grandchildren.
That’s a legacy.
Historically, it was usually only one item that would tilt the economy, and many could predict the result, or at least do some very good Monday morning quarterbacking. Currently, there are a number of moving parts that, individually, you could point to and make a good guess about their impact. However, the confluence of all of these things is impacting different areas of the economy, and I think businesses are not sure what to make of it all.
As it stands, I suggest reading the entire speech by John Williams – it might take just over 5 minutes – and I think you’ll see that the Fed is not panicking because the economy is really doing ok. Not great, but certainly not bad. So, in keeping with the outer space references, as Douglas Adams would say, make sure you keep your towel close by and don’t panic.
By the way, I know of a finance major UGA graduate – that’s University of Georgia for the folks in SoCal – that is actually looking to move and start a career in the Southland, but don’t hold that against her. She is whip smart and comes from a family of whip smart women. Send inquires to me and I’ll clue you in.
Do or do not. There is no try.
– Master Yoda
