It's June 1 - 250 years ago (and today), Consumer Confidence, PCE, C Ya Boomer, and who is Shrey Parikh?
It’s June 1, and that three-day Memorial Day weekend seems like a distant memory, but summer is here. Yes, I know summer doesn’t technically start until the summer solstice on June 21, but let’s be practical; you have already scraped the rust off the grill.
We have just under five weeks until Independence Day, and this year, it’s our 250th birthday, so let’s start with some interesting facts about these United States.
This Week, 250 Years Ago - The first week of June 1776
It’s been over a year since the War for Independence started on April 19, 1775, with the Battles of Lexington and Concord.
New England is under Patriot control, and the British have abandoned Boston, regrouping in Halifax.
The next battle will be for New York; both sides are preparing for it.
The American colonies are rapidly shifting from protest to outright separation from Britain.
Two weeks earlier, the Continental Congress adopted a resolution urging colonies to form new governments independent of British authority.
The idea of Independence was becoming increasingly popular.
By the first week of June, the colonies were functionally preparing to live without Britain.
If you thought starting your company was tough…
This Week, Today. Well, last week, technically speaking.
Consumer Confidence ticked down slightly to 93.1, down from 93.8 last month, but above expectations. Consumers are less upbeat about current conditions; inflation remains a problem, but forward expectations ticked up, suggesting some optimism.
Speaking of inflation, the PCE – Personal Consumption Expenditures index – ticked up. Again.
The PCE is a key measurement of inflation. Survey says…
3.8% year over year, up from 3.5%. Ugh.
The core PCE – without energy and food – was 3.3%, up from 3.2%
The impact of increased oil prices is being felt across the board.
So, when inflation increases, purchasing power decreases which leads us to…
Monthly personal income was static. It did not go up or down. I guess that makes up for last month’s 0.6% increase.
Consumer spending, on the other hand, was up 0.5% month over month.
GDP’s initial measure was 2.0% and the revised measure was released: 1.6%.
Well, it’s a lot better than Canada’s. They had their second consecutive quarter of negative growth. That would indicate a recession, but we’ll see how the final numbers come out.
Finally, the outlier: The Chicago Business Barometer had its biggest increase in 4 years. It went from contracting in April at 49.2 to 62.7 for May, signaling strong growth.
The only weakness in the report was a slight reduction in employment. That means either productivity is up or employers are cautious about hiring, or both.
See Ya, Boomer!!
The labor force participation rate ticked down by 0.6 percentage points since the start of the year.
FWIW, we are pretty much halfway through the year. Jiminy, that flew by.
All of the decline is accounted for by workers aged… wait for it… 65 and up, dropping out of the labor pool.
They took a look at their 401k, took a look at the myriad of AI LLM apps, and presented their employer with the digitus impudicus.
You may cheer their departure, but you will no longer hear stories about how the jungle gym was made of steel and was on asphalt, and how Eastwood, Bronson, and McQueen were real men, not like DiCaprio or that Chalamet fellow.
Now you’ll have to hear about the X’ers talk about Fast Times at Ridgemont High and Ferris Bueller’s Day Off and how they were latchkey kids.
Gen Xer Alert: If you ever want to see what the corporate working environment was like in the ‘80s, just watch the 1988 film Working Girl. It has one of the best inspirational anthems by Carly Simon: Let the River Run. You’ll also see what 80’s hair styles looked like; you can throw that back at the Gen Xers, and even the Boomers as the door hits them on the way out.
Credit Cards
Speaking of the 80’s, when you got a credit card in 1985, it was an achievement; you had conquered the world. That’s the way I felt when I got my Sears Credit Card with a $500 limit and promptly purchased a microwave and made nachos – the same day. No joke.
Back to the Report.
There is a total of $1,250,000,000,000 in credit card debt in the USA.
Not really something to boast about on our 250th birthday, but it is what it is.
According to the New York Fed – you may remember John Williams – that is the highest balance since the Fed started keeping track in 1999.
13.12% were 90 days or more delinquent – the highest level since 2011.
There was a reason for it then; unemployment was at 9.6% in 2010. It’s 4.3% now.
Maybe we really want those points.
The National Foundation for Credit Counseling had 24% more clients this January than the same time last year, and 60% more than 2018.
Folks, keeping up with the Joneses and maintaining appearances just ain’t that cheap. Sometimes you just have to buy the discounted bag of coffee at Marshall’s for $6.99 that makes 20+ cups instead of one venti iced caramel macchiato with almond milk and an extra shot of espresso.
That goes for $7.50, btw. Gemini said so.
Who is Shrey Parikh? The folks in Rancho know who he is.
This past Thursday was the Scripps National Spelling Bee finals.
Contestants are selected by competing in their school, then district, then region until 247 are sent to Washington, D.C. for the finals.
All expenses are paid, and they range in age from 9 to 15 and are all in elementary or middle school. No high schoolers allowed.
78 were returning finalists.
14-year-old Shrey Parikh was also a returning competitor from two years before.
He missed the cut last year after finishing 3rd in 2024, and this was his final opportunity.
How do you bounce back? He practiced his spelling for five hours a day.
In the final rounds, Shrey bested words like Bhubaneswar, Pluchea, hwyl, Metohija, and Philepitta.
Microsoft Word doesn’t even recognize two of them.
He then moved to the spell-off, where he spelled a record 32 words correctly in 90 seconds.
The other finalist could only spell 25 words in the same list in 90 seconds.
He gets a $52,500 cash prize and other swag.
He is now focusing on qualifying for the California Mathcounts competition; of course he is.
He enjoys tennis and playing chess, and his favorite movie is The Goonies, (speaking of Gen X).
Just another kid from Rancho Cucamonga, California.
Initiative and perseverance. Those are two attributes that you will find in successful people, particularly the folks at the top. Shrey is one of those people. Five hours a day? Jiminy. You may think that’s an exaggeration, but once you see the clip of him winning the competition, you know he gave his very best effort.
And that’s the tough part: giving 100% every minute of every day and persevering until you win.
Commit to doing your very best this week.
