PPI, Jobs, Manufacturing Survey, Headlines, and who is Todd Graves?
Economically…
The biggest news this week was the Producer Price Index, or as my savvy readers say, the PPI. It’s what the manufacturers charge wholesalers, distributors, or retailers for the products they make.
Last month, it increased 0.5% for the month. Expectations were for a 0.3% increase for February. It came in at 0.7%. Wow.
The core monthly – that is, without incorporating food, fuel, and trade services – rose 0.5%, up from 0.4%.
Year over year, PPI was 3.4%, up from 2.9%, and Core PPI was up 3.5% vs. 3.4% from the previous month.
That is bad ‘bad news’. It’s going to be a while before we see any rate cuts, folks.
Initial jobless claims continue to hold steady, at 205,000 this past week, below expectations of 215,000 and last week's 213,000.
That’s bad ‘good news’ because it’s good that the labor market is holding firm without much in the way of layoffs, but bad in the sense that it doesn’t give the Fed a reason to drop rates to stimulate hiring, or slow firing.
Finally, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (for the period March 9 to March 16) was way more optimistic than expected. These are firms in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware.
39% of firms reported general activity increases vs. 21% who reported decreases.
40% of firms reported increases in shipments vs. 18% reporting decreases.
46% reported increases in the price they paid for their raw material/parts, and 53% reported no change.
52% reported higher production in Q1 vs. Q4 2025.
56% expect an increase in activity in the next 6 months vs. 16% that expect a decrease.
Overall, firms expected an increase in employment over the next six months.
It’s always nice to end with good news.
Headlines
Papa John’s to Shut Hundreds of Shops – 300, as it turns out, or about 5% of its locations. Pizza Hut is also closing 250 underperforming locations.
Krispy Kreme: Margins Improve but Loss Widens – Pizza and donuts??!! Boomers’ cardiologists want them to eat low-fat diets, and Zoomers want organic and authentic.
Oh, but it’s got to be affordable.
That leaves pizza and donuts out in the cold. What is the world coming to?!
Prada Warns Versace Revamp Will Drag on Profitability – Prada purchased the Versace brand. You can use this with some of your West L.A. friends, but I’m not sure anyone is going to care.
Beyond Meat Takes Cleaver to its Name – and they say editors don’t have a sense of humor…
The company dropped ‘meat’ from its name and changed it to Beyond The Plant Protein Co., or Beyond for short. The protein trend just baffles me, but then, I’m not in the target demographic. I was also baffled by the proliferation of coffee shops, frozen yogurt shops and more recently, craft breweries and yoga studios.
Trends come and go. What’s the next one? Speaking of trends…
Who is Todd Graves?
He’s 53, but at the age of 22, he had nothing to his name but his dog, so let’s start there.
He grew up in Baton Rouge. His dad was an extended auto warranty salesman, after he spent two years as an NFL tackle for the Aints – sorry, autocorrect – Saints.
Todd is a born entrepreneur. How do I know? As a kid, he ran lemonade stands, hired friends to join his lawn service, and painted house numbers on curbs, adding a pineapple stencil to differentiate himself from other curb painters.
In college at UGA (Bulldogs will know what that is), he was studying telecommunications and dreaming of moving to Hollywood, but the urge to start his own business won out.
He was certain a fast-food restaurant, one block from the LSU campus, serving only chicken fingers, would be a hit with LSU students. His childhood friend and co-founder, Craig Silvey, put the plan together for a business class. He received a B-. Evidently, the plan was good, but the concept was flawed.
The banks agreed. Big shocker, but I wouldn’t lend to a restaurant either.
It was 1994, he needed money, so, novel concept, he got a hard-working, good-paying job as a boilermaker in Los Angeles, manning welding equipment and blow torches at refineries.
Then he heard the real money was in Alaska, commercial fishing for sockeye salmon, so he and his partner flew to Alaska and talked their way onto a couple of boats.
It was dangerous work, but when they returned to Baton Rouge a year later, they had $50,000 in savings.
That’s also how I know he’s an entrepreneur. He worked to raise his own capital.
This cash, plus $90,000 from a few local investors, made them an acceptable credit risk for a Small Business Administration lender, where they got $50,000.
They maximized every penny of that capital, doing all the work themselves and driving a U-Haul around picking up used kitchen equipment.
In 1996, they opened their first restaurant serving exactly what they serve today: Chicken fingers, crinkle fries, coleslaw, Texas toast, and a single dipping sauce.
They were going to name it Sockeye’s, a tribute to how they got the capital to start the business. However, a friend suggested naming it after Graves’ dog, Raising Cane.
Graves, Silvey, and 8 others ran the operation, and they made $30 the first month.
Six months later, he talked his SBA lender into financing another location.
Three years later, his partner wanted out, so Graves paid him six figures and took him off the loans and guarantees.
For whatever reason, Silvey was tired of the 100-hour weeks and wanted to go down the MBA route. I’m not sure why he wanted an MBA; he just spent 3 years getting one.
That’s another clue that Graves is an entrepreneur. He has 100-hour workweeks.
Graves added six more locations by 2000 and had 24 by 2004. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina knocked 21 of his 28 stores offline.
He talked his lenders into working with him. This guy is a good talker.
Today, there are more than 900 Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers in 42 states, currently adding 125 stores a year.
Sales hit $5,100,000,000 in 2024, about $6,600,000 per store, second only in the quick service world to Chick-fil-A.
He is still involved in all facets of the business and is VERY detail-oriented. Oh, and Forbes estimated his net worth at $22,000,000,000.
“When you’re an entrepreneur, and you believe in something to your core, you use every no and every ‘it’s not going to work’ as fuel. It’s the best thing that can happen to you.”
And that’s also how you know he’s an entrepreneur.
That was a long piece for Chicken Fingers, and there is so much more to the story. My point is that entrepreneurs know what they want to do, either from the start, or 20 years into their career, they realize that the folks they are reporting to have no idea what they are doing, and they can do it better. That’s when their entrepreneurial spirit kicks in.
The first quarter is done. On to Q2!!
