Happy New Year!! GDP, Production, Confidence, Headlines, NFL and what is the Moylan Arrow?
Happy New Year! We’re baaaack… Let’s get on with Volume 7, Issue #1 of The Russell Report.
While You Were Out
GDP – the Gross Domestic Product of the USA, came in at a 4.3% annual growth rate for the third quarter. That’s like finding a picture of Ulysses Grant in your winter coat pocket. For you zoomers out there, that’s like finding a $50 gift card you got from your aunt last Christmas.
That’s the highest in a couple of years.
It was 3.8% in Q2. Even if Q4 slows down due to the government shutdown, it’s going to be a good year economically.
Consumer spending grew 3.5%, driven by purchases of recreational goods and vehicles.
Businesses spent on AI, with purchases of information processing equipment rising 8.4%; this offset lower typical equipment purchases.
And the lower trade deficit added 1.6% to the growth rate.
Industrial production for October fell 0.1%. This was a delayed report. Remember that government shutdown thing?
Industrial production for November rose 0.2%.
Both are minimal decreases and increases. But what are they?
As it turns out, it is a measurement of three major market groups (Final Products, Nonindustrial Supplies and Materials) and three industries: Manufacturing, Mining, and Utilities.
Manufacturing was down 0.4% in October and flat in November.
Mining was down 0.8% in October and up 1.7% in November.
Utilities were up 2.6% in October and down 0.4% in November
That’s enough data for the start of the year… let’s get on to other stories.
Consumer Confidence
The U.S. has the University of Michigan consumer survey to measure consumer confidence. Evidently, Germany also has a consumer survey.
The survey is done by research group GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions.
Their sentiment is at a negative 26.9. Now, that does sound bad. The U.S. sentiment rose to 53, up from a low of 51 a couple of months ago.
I think I like the German system better. If it’s negative, you know it’s bad. If I got a 53 in school (and I did), my first question was “Is this on a curve?” and you’d be grateful for a ‘C’.
With a negative number, there really isn’t a curve; it’s just bad. At any rate…
The Germans are saving at the highest rate since the Great Recession. That is one of their leading economic indicators – if savings go up in Germany, it means people are uncertain.
In the U.S., instead of saving, we put more on the credit card. Just a different mentality, I guess.
We’ll see what the consumer debt numbers are this week.
Headlines
Hiring Expected to Stay Stagnant in 2026. Even if you don’t like your job, find another one before you quit. And if you are a business owner, that does give you some leverage.
Trade Schools are Having Their Moment. AI can’t unplug your drain for $99; only Mike Diamond's smell-good plumbers can. That’s an L.A. thing.
Police Use Drones for Enforcement, Put Them on Patrol. I met one of the drone guys in Ontario PD, and he says they are very effective… he knows when you are sleeping, he knows when you're awake…
Cannabis Rules Eased after Pitched Battle. And that’s why alcohol sales are down; weed use is up.
Smartphones and the Childhood Epidemic of Myopia. From staring at a screen 12 hours a day. You could see that coming from a mile away.
New Evidence Shows That Bans on Phones in Classrooms Work. Thank you, Captain Obvious. I wonder how much that study cost.
First World Problems
As if private equity and hedge funds didn’t have enough to worry about…
According to Forbes, the average price of an NFL team has risen 59% over the last three years. How on earth is a hedge fund manager supposed to deal with all of this inflation??!!
In a sign of NFL owners' magnanimousness (that may be the longest word that has ever appeared in a Russell Report), ticket prices have only increased 29% in the last three years, from $121 to $156. On average.
The Cowboys are still the most valuable at $13,000,000,000. And for that, you get 6 wins, 7 losses and a tie. Wow.
Just in case you are curious, you could have snagged a ticket for the December 31 game at $63 for a standing room only (SRO) space, which is a real thing. How do you even reserve that?
“Pardon me, sir, but you are standing in my space.”
Seat prices were as low as $188 on the Cowboys website.
“Hey kids, instead of Disneyland, we’re going to the football game!”.
Who was Jim Moylan and what is the Moylan Arrow?
Necessity is the mother of invention. Such is the case with Jim Moylan, and just so you know, every one of you reading this is very familiar with the Moylan Arrow. But let’s start at the beginning.
Mr. Moylan was the youngest of six children and grew up in Detroit.
If you thought the third child in the family was left to fend for themselves, how do you think the sixth felt like? In Detroit, no less.
He started his 35-year career with Ford Motor as a draftsman and retired as a product engineering design supervisor in 2003. In between, he got his college degree to get a promotion, did a stint in Japan, got laid off, got a job as a milkman (and other odd jobs) to make ends meet, until he was hired back.
In other words, the typical Baby Boomer.
His focus was on instrument panels, or what you and I would call a dashboard.
It was the intersection of this focus and a rainstorm 40 years ago where the plot thickens.
Mr. Moylan needed to get to a meeting across the Ford campus, so he jumped into a company pool car. The low fuel light lit up.
In the pouring rain, he pulled up to the pump – there was no canopy – and no sooner did he get out of the car, than he realized the fuel door was on the other side of the car.
As he got back in the car to turn it around, he was already thinking of a way to help drivers of rental cars, company car pools, or multiple-car families know where to pull up to a gas pump.
When he got back to his desk, he drafted a memo:
“I would like to propose a small addition in all passenger car and truck lines.”
The addition was a small indicator on the dashboard that would tell the driver which side of the car the fuel cap is located. “Based on personal experience, I feel that this little indicator would remove the guesswork of which side I want to park.”
This was in 1986. His small addition debuted on the 1989 Ford Thunderbird as a white arrow next to the fuel gauge indicator.
Other car companies soon followed suit.
Jim Moylan died last month at the age of 80.
There is no school of business, street or hospital wing named after him. But the Moylan Arrow will impact more people than any university, town or hospital could ever hope to. So, the next time you are in a rental car, look at the gas gauge and see which way that little white arrow is pointing. It could save you a bit of trouble, and you can thank Jim Moylan for that.
It’s the start of a new year, a time when many of us feel jazzed and eager to get back to it, whatever ‘it’ happens to be. This is particularly most effective if you have had a week or two off and have recharged. You may even be ambitious enough to start something new, or tweak the way you normally do things. In other words, you may have a new year resolution or two.
Make it achievable and have someone else hold you accountable, preferably someone who won’t annoy you whenever they ask about your progress.
The quote to start the year is from Michael Jordan:
I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.
Best wishes for a successful 2026!
